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Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Coalition crisis

After one day of what seemed to be reconciliation, things are looking bad for the PiS/PO coalition. Jan Rokita, the leader of Civic Platform, has said that coalition talks have reached a "crisis".

"We are in a crisis which must be overcome. I am going to (prime minister- designate) Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz to talk with him," Rokita told reporters a few minutes ago. News agencies report that PO presidential candidate Donald Tusk and PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński will also be present at the meeting.

This probably was caused by the bitter argument (Polish link) over the nomination of the next Speaker of the Sejm. PiS, who had rejected PO's earlier nomination of Bronisław Komorowski, has nominated Peasants' Party (PSL) member Józef Zych - a candidate unacceptable for PO.

It seems PiS is putting the pressure on the liberals, showing their willingness to form a government with other, more populist parties.

It also may have something to do with this however, as PO are very pro-euro.

Boo is also following that story.


Blogger Gustav said...


WARSAW, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The zloty fell 0.3 percent on Tuesday after a leader of Poland's Civic Platform said coalition talks with their conservative would-be partners were in crisis, dealers said.

"The market has gone decisively lower after the news, this is the first serious sign that our worries over the coalition may prove justified," said Tomasz Kurkowski, analyst at Citibank's Bank Handlowy in Warsaw.

10/25/2005 12:28:00 PM  

Blogger Michael Farris said...

I'm not sure bieng anti-Euro is a good policy for the Duck. IME most Poles have precious little loyalty to the zloty (a ridiculous pseudo-curency for over forty years) and lots of experience in thinking of foreign currencies (esp the dollar) as being more prestigious.
Also, the domestic economy has never depended heavily on the status of the zloty.
There might be some last minute sentiment for the zloty, but when push comes to shove I would imagine most people would vote for the Euro instead (in the countryside as much as the cities).

10/25/2005 12:54:00 PM  

Anonymous Kinuk said...

I can only hope then, that the city folk would actually get off their asses and go and vote. Regardless of how the Poles actually feel, I think that any referendum would bring out of the woodwork the Giertychs and the Leppers of this country, who will, all of a sudden, proclaim their love for the zloty. Let's not kid ourselves, PiS is a fairly nationalistic party and they aren't looking going to let anything "truly Polish" go without a fight. Even if that means engaging their cronies. And Oj. Rydzyk, who will one day burn in hell (am convinced of that), and his uber-Catholic Radio Maryja. Come on, city folk, you didn't bother voting for your parliament (hence PiS won) or your President (hence the duck won), let's see if you vote against something for once.

I won't be holding my breath.

10/25/2005 01:25:00 PM  

Blogger Michael Farris said...

I won't make a prediction, but I won't be surprised if the whole PiS/PO coalition idea soon ends up deader than the dodo, leaving PiS to try to form a minority government or really throw their lot in with the loony parties whose constituencies they pandered to in order to win in the first place.

A big problem with city voters is that "smart" people claim indifference to politics as a badge of pride, leaving the run of the place to the charlatans and fools.

Democracies do tend to get what they deserve.

10/25/2005 01:50:00 PM  

Blogger Gustav said...

Democracies do tend to get what they deserve.

Amen Michael.

About the euro referendum - In my opinion, this has nothing to do with sentimentality for the zloty and everything to do with PiS wanting to gain more control over monetary policy. Remember, they want to abolish the Monetary Policy Council as well - what's the point of that if you're just going to give interest-rate decisions over to the European Central Bank?

No, no. PiS has plans to devalue the currency to make Polish exports that much more attractive, and in order to give them some breathing room when they start spending beyond Poland's means.

And yes, those are the kinds of propositions that are going to drive away PO. My thinking is there will be either a PiS-PSL-SO coalition or a PiS-PSL-LPR coalition. PO will once again be doomed to opposition, and may have to cooperate with arch-rivals SLD.

But with the uninspiring campaign PO ran, and the incompetence they've shown in the coalition talks, I suppose they deserve it.

10/25/2005 02:16:00 PM  

Blogger beatroot said...

You know there is an argument for doing away with the MPC. The UK only gave away the power for elected politicians to set interest rates 8 years ago. And central banks, with rate setting powers, are completly focused on inflation at the expense of everything else.

But like Gustav says, what would be the point of doing that if all they do is hand over the whole thing do another bunch of unelected 'experts' like the ECB?

But would Poles vote for the euro? Of course they would! And the euro is slowly becoming one of the world's important currencies to hold foreign exchange in. I think that it's at about 25% now, and the dollar is now at something like forty percent, I think. And by the time Bush has finished with the economy, people will be dropping the dollar even faster.

10/25/2005 05:41:00 PM  

Blogger Gustav said...

Sheesh. Neostrada was having some major problems there.

I hope you're right beatroot, although kinuk's point about LPR and SO coming out and drumming up opposition to the euro is a good one. Whether they'll be able to win is a good question.

You know there is an argument for doing away with the MPC.

True. But do you want to make that argument while PiS is running the country?

10/25/2005 11:19:00 PM  

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