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Monday, July 25, 2005

Latest parliamentary poll numbers

Angus Reid Consultants:
Law and Justice, Civic Platform Tops in Poland

The opposition Law and Justice Party (PiS) is the most popular political organization in Poland, according to a poll by Ipsos. 27 per cent of respondents would vote for the PiS in this year’s general election, a four per cent increase since May.

Civic Platform (PO) is in second place with 21 per cent, followed by both the governing Democratic Left Alliance-Labour Union (SLD-UP) and the Self-Defence of the Polish Republic (SRP) with 14 per cent, and the League of Polish Families (LPR) with nine per cent. Support is lower for the Social Democracy of Poland (SDP), the Peasant’s Party (PSL), the Democratic Party of Poland (PD), the Union for Real Politics (UPR) and the National Pensioners’ Party (KPEiR).

On May 18, Polish president Aleksander Kwasniewski announced that the election to renew the two houses of Parliament would take place on Sept. 25. Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski is openly considering a coalition government with Civic Platform.

Prime minister Leszek Miller stepped down in May 2004 after Poland officially joined the European Union (EU). Miller had administered the government since 2001, but lost his majority after a split with the PSL in March 2003. Kwasniewski appointed SLD member Marek Belka as acting prime minister.

Poland currently has 2,350 soldiers in Iraq, the fourth largest contingent of the coalition after the United States, Britain and Italy. In April, defence minister Jerzy Szmajdzinski said Poland would withdraw its troops at the end of the year, when the current mandate expires. Szmajdzinski added that the mission could be extended if the United Nations (UN) Security Council or the Iraqi government request Poland to keep the troops in place.

Polling Data

What party would you support in the next election?
Jul. 2005 May 2005

Law and Justice Party (PiS) 27% 23%

Civic Platform (PO) 21% 21%

Democratic Left Alliance-Labour Union (SLD-UP) 14% 5%

Self-Defense (SO) 14% 16%

League of Polish Families (LPR) 9% 11%

Social Democracy of Poland (SDP) 6% 6%

Peasant’s Party (PSL) 3% 4%

Democratic Party of Poland (PD) 3% 3%

Union for Real Politics (UPR) 2% 2%

National Pensioners’ Party (KPEiR) 1% 2%

Source: Ipsos
Methodology: Interviews to 958 Polish adults, conducted from Jul. 7 to Jul. 12, 2005. Margin of error is 3.2 percent.

Wow! look at that jump for SLD! That's almost entirely due to Cimoszewicz's entrance into the presidential race, plus some cosmetic measures from the party.

But the best news is that ALL populist parties have slipped in the polls. Self-Defense, LPR, and PSL all lost ground. LPR (the religious far-right) slipped the most, by 3 points. Now if PO could just overtake PiS...

PO is the better center-right party, in terms of philosophy, but both of their leaders are detestable and their campaign has been a disaster. PiS has taken all the publicity, and PO is hardly ever in the news.


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