So is this kissing ass or showing spine?
Polish press reports that the current government has promised the US support in any future attack on Iran
Recently, discussions on WS and elsewhere have centered around whether Polish military support of the US in Iraq has more to do with self-interest of the enlightened or not-so enlightened sort. Some argue that Poland's presence in Iraq is driven by a will to "help the Iraqi people" - despite the fact that survey after survey shows that Poles want nothing to do with Iraq.
However, today Rzeczpospolita (Polish link) reports that Poland is chomping at the bit to get involved in another of the US' military campaigns, this time of a much less altruistic nature.
The WBJ sums up the Rz article:Wayne Madsen, a former US military intelligence officer who is currently an independent analyst, stated that Poland has fully backed the administration of George W. Bush and the potential decision it might make to attack Iran. Madsen backed this announcement on anonymous sources from Polish intelligence, and went on to say that during recent visits of Defense Minister Radosław Sikorski, as well as Foreign Minister Stefan Meller, both ensured their counterparts in the USA, Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleezza Rice respectively, that Poland will support a possible attack. According to Rzeczpospolita, the Foreign Ministry denies these allegations, and states that the issue of Iran during the past visits was not even touched upon during the talks.
It's widely agreed that if the US indeed were to attack Iran, the campaign would not be an Iraq-style governmental overthrow, but rather a systematic bombing of believed nuclear weapons-making sites, so "helping the Iranian people" is excluded. A bombing campaign would inevitably produce "collateral damage" (heavy loss of innocent Iranian life) for which the US and any of its partners would be roundly criticized. There is no reason to believe that Poles would be any more supportive of an Iranian military adventure than the current Iraqi one, and there is some question as to how much military support Poland could actually give the US in such a situation.
So, if as reported, these promises were indeed made, what in the world could be the Polish government's motivation for making such pacts?
This is about staying on the good side of the guy with the biggest wallet and the biggest guns. Kaczynskis and Co realize that the US is a good partner for a small country which often angers its allies and neighbors to have on its side.
Kissing ass? More like irrigating.
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The US is geographically far enough from Poland that it is perceived as non-threatening. And, the US has yet to really burn Poland. Lots of little indignities, but nothing hugely major.
The Polish government is also hoping/convinced that having the US as a strong ally will act as a deterrent against Russia if/when Russia returns to an agressively expansionist military policy. Failing to act as a deterrent, the Polish government hopes for military assistance in said scenario.
I myself am fairly sure that the US would not offer more than verbal support in such an eventuality.
That said, it's devotion to the US has cost Poland in the EU and will cost it more especially in terms of gaining a reputation as being a poor ally/member. Hint: you can't play on two teams at the same time
Nail on the head, Michael.
Poland's best hope was to become the type of bridge between Europe and the US that Britain is. I still hold out hope that it could be, but it's done such a good job of turning EU allies away that I don't think it has any of their trust. The bridge has been burned on the EU side, and it will take a while before it's rebuilt.
That said, it's devotion to the US has cost Poland in the EU and will cost it more especially in terms of gaining a reputation as being a poor ally/member. Hint: you can't play on two teams at the same time.
Perhaps having recently lived under the rule of a real dictator gives the Poles, and the rest of Eastern Europe, much better perspective than the cowards who benefited from the Marshall Plan and American military presence throughout the cold war.
Maybe thats why they don't share the western weenie's jealousy and resentment that fuels their irrational Americaphobia.
Maybe Poland and eastern Europe has not been free long enough to share the west's arrogant attitude towards condemning the Americans for having the balls to keep Europe out of the range of Iranian nuclear missiles. Maybe the new Polish government has enough class and self-respect not to just sit back and let their new ally do all the heavy lifting that ultimately will benefit Poland's security more than Americas.
Y'all are always crying that Poland's relationship with America has not brought Poland instant prosperity, but exactly where would Poland be today if America (Reagan) had not forced the Soviet Union to spend itself into collapse?
I myself am fairly sure that the US would not offer more than verbal support in such an eventuality.
What are you expecting from Poland's EU allies in the event of a resurgence in Russian aggression? About the same as last time?
It appears to me that America shows more respect for Poland than Poland's EU buddies do, seems like a no brainer why they would support America in it's role as the world's policemen......its the right thing to do.
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Redneck, can I ask what your experience with Poland and/or Polish people has been? I've lived here for over 10 years and can't recognize anything relevant to Poland in what you write.
First, you assume that Polish people have similar ideas toward government (and specifically the US government) and Poland's past that Americans have. I've never come across any evidence to make me think that.
Are Polish people glad the communist era is over? Overwhelmingly yes. Do they regard it as a time of repression? Not especially (among most). It was economically more unpopular than politically (which is why former party members won so many elections). Kaczynski won the presidential election _despite_ his hard line anti (post)-communist leanings, not because of them.
On the whole Polish people respect Americans as people who know what they want (money) and go after it but we're also seen as naive, politically immature and prone to panic (and simplisitically religious rather than spiritual).
US governments are generally evaluated on their pro-Polish (in word and deed) stance. The first Bush was very popular as was Clinton (after a slow, uncertain start). Most people have not warmed to Bush II who's most often seen as a lightweight who's done nothing for Poland after Poland has risked a lot to support the US.
In the Polish media, I've yet to hear Polish participation described in terms of bringing democracy to Iraq. They don't even pretend it's about anything but supporting the US.
Poland voted to join the EU and there's _no_ will to leave now. As things stand now, Poland doesn't really have _any_ allies in the EU. Spain under Aznar was an ally but his party's defeat ended that. Britain was an ally but Poland (and other countries) publicly humiliating Blair over the budget ended that. Poland needs to create some allies within the EU and just doing anything Washington wants isn't going to get that done.
"Michael, you are either a complete fool or you and your friends are too young to remember what it was really like."
Why thank you kindly. My remarks are based on many dozens (if not hundreds) of conversations with Polish people over many years from all walks of life who lived large chunks of their lives in the Polish Peoples Republic.
What people mention about the communist period is primarily material inconvenience (lines and rations). There really is not that much talk about politics one way or the other (even from those who suffered politically a modern cliche is the most strident anti communists now didn't do much then). There were exceptionally bad periods but those were mostly the exception, not the rule. Poland wasn't East Germany or Romania. Poland at its worst, as in martial law, was still probably freer than peoples Romania at its most lax.
IME Polish people in the great majority are absolutely oblivious to politics (determinedly so) and grimly indifferent about form of government provided they can provide for their families and the government doesn't interfere too much in their personal business.
All in all, Polish memories of the PRL (people's republic) in Poland (as opposed to those who emigrated then) are conflicting and complex. They certainly don't correspond with what conservative Americans think/wish that Polish people think. You might not like it (I'm not always happy about how little Polish people are interested in who makes up the government) but that does seem to be the way of it.
Pierrem: I agree with you that Polish governments feel they have no choice but to go with the US on defense matters.
But Pierrem - we generally have a rule on these blogs that discourages personal remarks...so please, let's battle about ideas, and not trade insults.
But Mike is right, Poles do have complicated memories about the past here. It all depends on how well they are doing in the new capitalist Poland. If they are the new middle class then communist days have no attraction at all. But if you are an unemployed miner, or a pensioner, or just some of the older Poles who think that all this new (capitalist) popular culture is a disgrace, then the old days can seem, through communist red rosy glasses, to be a much safer place than today.
Well Paul Bremer's book criticising the Polish contingent in Iraq as useless will certainly help!
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